New
forecasts from Ovum indicate that telecoms operators will lose US$386bn
between 2012 and 2018 from customers using over-the-top (OTT) VoIP
solutions such as Skype and Microsoft Lync. These losses will mostly
come from international call revenues, including roaming.
In new forecasts*, the global analyst firm reveals
that the consumer OTT VoIP market is thriving, with traffic expected to
grow by a CAGR of 20 percent between 2012 and 2018, and to reach 1.7
trillion minutes in 2018. This growth is being driven by improvements in
the availability and speed of broadband networks; the growing
sophistication, affordability, and capability of smartphones and
computers; and the rise of social media. If the current trajectory is
maintained, Ovum expects telcos to lose US$63bn in voice revenues in
2018 as customers use free OTT VoIP solutions.
“Unfortunately, telcos must learn to live with this reality; the use
of VoIP will grow increasingly over the next five years to become the
underlying technology for delivering voice over telecoms
infrastructure,” says Emeka Obiodu, principal analyst at Ovum. “Blocking
these services, entering into alliances, or trying to out-compete OTT
players using services such as Joyn, are not going to stem the OTT VoIP
tide. Instead, we encourage telcos to neutralize the price arbitrage
that makes OTT VoIP services appealing.”
In North America, where they already offer unlimited/abundance voice
bundles, telcos have been able to secure their revenues while leaving
customers to use whatever VoIP service they want. Western Europe and
developed Asia will all lose revenues for VoIP calls that originate from
their fixed broadband infrastructure.
“While these early initiatives have been for postpaid customers,
Optimus Portugal's WTF tariff has extended the unlimited voice bundle
plan to prepaid customers. This is a trend we expect to spread through
the telecoms market as telcos adjust their pricing strategies to charge
for metered data rather than metered voice,” explains Obiodu.
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